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中国人连续第六年成为美国房地产市场最大买家【中英文】

/2019-02-07 14:53

  来源:人民币交易与研究

  2018年,中国对美国商业地产的净购买量降至2012年以来的最低水平。但因人民币对美元下跌,即使卖家以低于买入价的价格出售,在将收益转换成人民币后,仍有可能获利。

  横向来看,中国投资者连续第六年成为美国房地产市场的最大买家,在数量和金额方面都是如此。现在,他们正将触角扩大到新的、更低的价格层次。

  

  图|视觉中国 文|华尔街日报

  去年中国对美国商业地产的净购买量降至2012年以来的最低水平,原因是在经济增长不断放缓的时期,中国政府继续向中国投资者施压,要求他们把现金撤回国内。

  Real Capital Analytics的数据显示,去年第四季度,来自中国大陆的保险公司、企业集团和其他投资者净卖出了8.54亿美元的美国商业地产。这标志着中国投资者对美国商业地产的出售量连续三季度超过购买量。这是中国投资者首次在这么长时间内抛售美国房地产。

  Chinese net purchases of U.S. commercial real estate last year dwindled to their lowest level since 2012, as Beijing kept up the pressure on Chinese investors to bring cash home during a period of worsening economic growth.

  Insurers, conglomerates and other investors from mainland China were net sellers of $854 million of U.S. commercial property in the fourth quarter, according to Real Capital Analytics. That marked the third-straight quarter Chinese investors sold more U.S. property than they bought, the first time ever these investors have been sellers for that long a stretch.

  2018年的后三个季度与前五年相比出现了巨大的逆转。在过去五年里,中国投资者进行了大规模的收购,经常轻松地以高于其他投资者的价格收购美国的豪宅。他们花了数百亿美元在豪华酒店上,比如纽约地标性建筑华尔道夫酒店(Waldorf Astoria),芝加哥耗资近10亿美元的摩天大楼开发项目,以及加州比弗利山庄(Beverly Hills)的豪华住宅项目。

  The selling during most of 2018 marked a powerful reversal from the previous five years, when Chinese investors went on a massive buying spree, often handily outbidding other investors for U.S. trophy properties. They spent tens of billions dollars on luxury hotels like the landmark Waldorf Astoria in New York, a nearly $1 billion skyscraper development in Chicago, and a glitzy residential project in Beverly Hills, Calif.

  

  图片:中国投资者对美国商业地产的净购买量|华尔街日报

  现在,中国最大的海外房地产投资者们正在抛售同样宝贵的资产,或者至少通过向新的合作伙伴出售股份,来减少在美国的资产。

  Now, many of China’s biggest overseas real-estate investors are unloading some of the same prized assets, or at least reducing their U.S. exposure by selling stakes to new partners.

  去年的转变反映出,中国政府为稳定人民币汇率、减少企业债务、通过限制某些海外投资来遏制中国经济放缓所做的努力。一些中国开发商目前在国内面临着信贷紧缩的局面,他们通过出售在美国的部分房产来筹集资金。

  分析人士认为,华盛顿和北京之间不断升温的贸易和政治紧张关系也让美国不再是中国企业投资的好地方。

  去年,中国经济增速降至1990年以来的最低水平。6.6%的GDP增长率,部分是由于中国与美国的贸易冲突仍在继续,以及中国解决债务问题的努力。

  The turnabout last year reflects an effort by the Chinese government to stabilize its currency, reduce corporate debt, and help arrest the country’s economic slowdown by clamping down on certain overseas investments. Some Chinese developers, now facing tighter credit conditions at home, have tried to raise money instead by selling some of their U.S. properties.

  Simmering trade and political tension between Washington and Beijing has also made the U.S. a less hospitable place to invest for Chinese firms, analysts say.

  China's economy grew at its slowest pace since 1990 last year. The 6.6% growth rate is due in part to the continuing trade conflict with the U.S. and China's efforts to get a handle on debt.

  Real Capital的数据显示,2018年,中国投资者净购买了26.3亿美元的美国房地产,是六年来的最低水平。中国人一直在出售他们在美国的房产,而新购房者却越来越少。美国全国地产经纪商协会(National Association of Realtors)最新公布的数据显示,从2017年4月到2018年3月,美国华人购房数量同比下降4%。经济学家说,这一大幅下滑反映出房价上涨、美元走强以及中美关系紧张。

  中国政府近期内不太可能放松资本管制,分析师预计中国投资者将在2019年继续抛售美国房地产。

  Chinese were net buyers of $2.63 billion of U.S. real estate in 2018, the lowest total in six years, according to Real Capital.?

  Chinese have also been selling their U.S. homes while fewer new buyers are showing up. Home purchases by Chinese in the U.S. tumbled 4% from April 2017 to March 2018 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to the most recently available data from the National Association of Realtors. That sharp decline reflected higher home prices, a strengthening dollar and tensions between the U.S. and China, economists say.

  Chinese authorities aren’t likely to loosen capital controls anytime soon, and analysts expect Chinese investors to continue to dump U.S. real estate in 2019.

  房地产咨询公司Rosen咨询(Rosen consulting Group)合伙人Arthur Margon在谈到中国的汇率控制政策时说,“中国还没有稳定下来,所以抛售时间表将会延长。”

  “They haven’t managed to stabilize anything, so the timeline is going to be extended,” said Arthur Margon, a partner at real-estate consulting firm Rosen Consulting Group, referring to China’s currency control policy.

  几年前,中国政府放松了对外国投资的限制,此后中国开始大举投资美国房地产市场。一些中国投资者被美国房地产市场的稳定回报所吸引,并将其视为分散投资的一种方式。

  然而,分析人士表示,一些中国买家更感兴趣的似乎是,收购那些他们认为能够带来声望和政治影响力、并有助于推动其品牌在全球扩张的豪宅。虽然中国买家在美国主要城市的购房活动中所占比例从未超过一个百分点,但他们开出的大额支票推高了某些市场领域的房价。

  “如果没有中国投资者,市场就不会有那么强劲的推动力,” Margon说。

  China began investing heavily in the U.S. real-estate market a few years ago after Beijing loosened restrictions on foreign investment. Some Chinese investors were attracted to the stable returns in the U.S. property market and saw it as a way to diversify their holdings.

  Yet some Chinese buyers seemed more interested in scooping up trophy properties that their new owners felt brought prestige, political clout and helped promote their brands for global expansion, analysts said. And while Chinese buyers never represented more than a fraction of the activity in any major U.S. city, the big checks they wrote helped push values higher in certain segments of the market.

  ?“Without that big push from Chinese investors, the market doesn’t have that rocket-propelling fuel to it,” said Mr. Margon.

  安邦 海航和万达

  安邦保险2015年斥资19.5亿美元收购纽约华尔道夫酒店(Waldorf Astoria hotel),创下美国酒店收购史上最高收购价。但这家保险公司已经在美国出售了另一个豪华酒店。此前,该公司前董事长被拘留,随后被判欺诈和挪用公款罪名成立。

  海航集团(HNA Group)和大连万达集团(Dalian Wanda Group)等负债累累的公司也纷纷抛售了在纽约、旧金山、明尼阿波利斯和加州比弗利山庄的房产。

  经纪商和银行家们认为,其中大部分都不是廉价出售。即使卖家以低于买入价的价格出售,在将收益转换成人民币后,仍有可能获利。自2014年初以来,人民币兑美元已下跌约12%。

  Anbang Insurance Group Co. paid the highest purchase price ever for a U.S. hotel with its $1.95 billion acquisition of New York’s Waldorf Astoria hotel in 2015. But the insurer, now controlled by the Chinese government after its former chairman was detained and subsequently convicted on fraud and embezzlement charges, has placed another portfolio of luxury hotels in the U.S. for sale.

  Other heavily indebted companies such as HNA Group and Dalian Wanda Group have also unloaded their properties in New York City, San Francisco, Minneapolis and Beverly Hills, Calif.

  Brokers and bankers said most of these weren’t distressed sales. Even if the sellers sold for less than they bought, they likely still made a profit after converting proceeds to the weakened Chinese currency. The yuan has declined by around 12% against the dollar since the start of 2014.

  中国投资者兴趣转向回报

  一些中国投资者仍对美国房地产市场感兴趣。但他们并没有追逐摩天大楼或豪华酒店,而是专注于更为普通的房地产,如仓库和便利店等回报更为稳定的小型零售建筑。

  中国人寿保险最近通过与Site Centers Corp.的合资企业收购了位于乔治亚州玛丽埃塔和查尔斯顿等地10个购物中心的80%股权,该公司估值约为6.07亿美元。

  房地产咨询公司Cushman&Wakefield中国直接投资高级董事总经理McKinny表示,虽然超过10亿美元的交易现在看起来已是过去式,但仍有中国投资者对售价不到3,000万美元的房地产项目感兴趣。

  “与以前相比,现在的投资者更看重回报(而非仅仅是声誉),以前他们会说,‘我想拥有纽约市中心或旧金山市中心最昂贵的建筑’。”

  Some Chinese investors are still interested in the U.S. real-estate market. But rather than pursuing soaring skyscrapers or luxury hotels, they have focused on more mundane properties, such as warehouses and smaller retail buildings such as convenience stores that offer steadier returns.

  China Life Insurance recently acquired an 80% stake in 10 shopping centers in places such as Marietta, Ga., and Charleston, S.C.. through a joint venture with Site Centers Corp. that valued the portfolio at around $607 million.

  While transactions above $1 billion now look like a thing of the past, there is still Chinese interest in real-estate projects selling for less than $30 million, said Xinyi McKinny, senior managing director of China Direct Investment at property consulting firm Cushman & Wakefield .

  “Investors are more returns-driven versus before, when it was ‘I want to own the most expensive building in downtown New York or downtown San Francisco,’” she said.

  中国投资者扩大触角

  当然转移对摩天大楼的兴趣并不意味着放弃或退出。横向来看,通联数据显示,据美国媒体本月初报道,全美房地产经纪商协会(NAR)的数据表明,中国投资者连续第六年成为美国房地产市场的最大买家,在数量和金额方面都是如此。现在,他们正将触角扩大到新的、更低的价格层次。

  旧金山房地产经纪人Michi Olson关注上海的国际房地产展会。他表示,今年与往年最大的不同是价格。最初,富有的中国买家在美国价值数百万美元的房产,全部是现金购房。现在,越来越多的中国中产阶级买家正在寻找价格较低的住房,更频繁地使用抵押贷款。

  Olson表示:“中国人仍将美国看作是一个安全港,在这里他们可以把自己的资产存起来,不仅为了他们的钱,也为了他们孩子的未来。”

  旧金山地区的几家银行现在专门为中国买家提供服务。根据房地产经纪人的数据,一套卖给中国买家的住宅价格中值从2017年的53万美元降至2018年的43.9万美元。尽管加州仍然是中国买家的最爱,但他们现在正进军德克萨斯、乔治亚和佛罗里达州的市场。(完)

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中国人连续第六年成为美国房地产市场最大买家【中英文】